The Response of Daily and Sub‐Daily Extreme Precipitations to Changes in Surface and Dew‐Point Temperatures.

Pérez Bello, Alexis; Mailhot, Alain ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5479-1421 et Paquin, Dominique (2021). The Response of Daily and Sub‐Daily Extreme Precipitations to Changes in Surface and Dew‐Point Temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres , vol. 126 , nº 16. e2021JD034972. DOI: 10.1029/2021JD034972.

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Résumé

Extreme precipitation events are expected to be more intense and frequent in the future. The magnitude of these changes remains, however, uncertain. It is also possible to relate extreme precipitation changes to changes in surface temperature. The basic idea is that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and therefore trigger more intense precipitation. Such a relationship can estimate future changes in extreme precipitation since simulated temperature from climate models is more reliable than precipitation. The response of extreme precipitation events to changes in surface air temperature and the surface dew-point temperature was analyzed over the Northeastern North America region using a large ensemble of 50 climate simulations covering the period 1956–2099. It was shown that more robust estimates of the temperature-precipitation relationship are obtained when using the surface dew-point temperature, confirming that available moisture can be a limiting factor in increasing extreme precipitation for some regions. Those estimates were consistent between the historical and future climate over a large part of the study region for the more extreme events and confirm that future extreme precipitation changes can be estimated from changes in dew-point temperature.

Type de document:	Article
Mots-clés libres:	water resources; stochastic model; SARIMA; Tashk-Bakhtegan Lakes; hybrid model; forecasting
Centre:	Centre Eau Terre Environnement
Date de dépôt:	15 oct. 2021 13:17
Dernière modification:	08 juin 2022 19:19
URI:	https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/12023

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