Oil, metals and minerals : World prices and Quebec’s regions (Results from a CGE model)

Lemelin, André et Robichaud, Véronique (2016). Oil, metals and minerals : World prices and Quebec’s regions (Results from a CGE model) Partnership for economic policy, Québec.

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Résumé

The authors have developed a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the province of Quebec, based on a new, relatively detailed social accounting matrix (SAM) for 2011. From the whole-Quebec SAM, they elaborated a multiregional SAM using, in particular, regional data produced by Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ), most notably estimates of regional GDP by industry. The two SAMs stand out for the care that was taken in conceiving their structure, and then in quantifying its elements from publicly available data, completed with information from various sources, proportionality assumptions and bi-proportional adjustments (RAS technique), subject to accounting identities and benchmark data. Quebec is broken down into 16 analytical regions: the Montreal census metropolitan area (CMA), subdivided in three (Montreal, Laval, Rest of the CMA); the 5 other CMAs in Quebec; 6 other analytical regions, called “peri-metropolitan”, non-metropolitan parts of the administrative regions (AR) having territory in common with each CMA; finally, two peripheral regions, Rest-of-the-North and East. Interregional trade flows were generated from regional output–domestic demand balances using a gravity model. The multiregional model built on the basis of that SAM, MEGBEC, is unique in Quebec. It is a recursive dynamic model inspired from PEP-1-t, considerably modified to take full advantage of the wealth of available data and adapt it to the specific structure of the Quebec economy. The MEGBEC model is used here to simulate the impact on Quebec regions of the drop in world prices of oil and metals and minerals. Results show that the fall in oil prices has a positive but diffuse effect on the Quebec economy, while the drop in the prices of metals and minerals has a negative impact and hits regions unequally: regions where mining and primary metal manufacturing are concentrated are hardest hit. Combining both shocks had a slightly positive overall impact, but a negative one in regions dependent on the prices of metals and minerals.

Type de document:	Rapport
Centre:	Centre Urbanisation Culture Société
Date de dépôt:	11 juill. 2016 13:54
Dernière modification:	11 juill. 2016 13:54
URI:	https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/4395

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