Revealing Emerging Hydroclimatic Shifts: Advanced Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Streamflow in the Navasota River Watershed.

Fares, Ali ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9255-7564; Awal, Ripendra ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2453-2592; Adem, Anwar Assefa ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6374-745X; Veettil, Anoop Valiya; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0969-063X; Brody, Samuel et Temimi, Marouane ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0006-2685 (2026). Revealing Emerging Hydroclimatic Shifts: Advanced Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Streamflow in the Navasota River Watershed. Hydrology , vol. 13 , nº 1. p. 12. DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13010012.

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Résumé

Rainfall and streamflow analyses have long been central to hydrological research, yet traditional approaches often overlook the complexity introduced by changing climate signals, land-use dynamics, and human infrastructure. This study applies an integrated, data-driven framework to explore emerging hydroclimatic shifts in the Navasota River Watershed of east-central Texas. By combining autocorrelation analysis, Mann–Kendall and modified Mann–Kendall trend tests, and Pettitt’s change-point detection, we examine more than a century of precipitation and streamflow records alongside post-1978 reservoir operations. Results reveal an accelerating wetting tendency, particularly evident in decadal rolling averages and early-summer precipitation, accompanied by a statistically significant increase in 10-year moving averages of annual peak streamflow. While abrupt regime shifts were not detected, subtle but persistent changes point to evolving watershed memory and heightened flood risk in the post-dam era. This study reframes rainfall and streamflow trend analysis as a dynamic tool for anticipating hydrologic regime shifts, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive water infrastructure and flood management strategies in rapidly urbanizing and climate-sensitive watersheds.

Type de document:	Article
Mots-clés libres:	Mann–Kendall test; Pettitt test; autocorrelation; Lake Limestone dam
Centre:	Centre Eau Terre Environnement
Date de dépôt:	09 mars 2026 19:37
Dernière modification:	09 mars 2026 19:37
URI:	https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/16798

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