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Peaks-Over-Threshold-Based Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Using Regularised Linear Models.


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Pan, Xiao; Yildirim, Gokhan ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3575-6487; Rahman, Ataur ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7152-9006; Haddad, Khaled et Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0969-063X (2023). Peaks-Over-Threshold-Based Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Using Regularised Linear Models. Water , vol. 15 , nº 21. p. 3808. DOI: 10.3390/w15213808.

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Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is widely used to estimate design floods in ungauged catchments. Most of the RFFA techniques are based on the annual maximum (AM) flood model; however, research has shown that the peaks-over-threshold (POT) model has greater flexibility than the AM model. There is a lack of studies on POT-based RFFA techniques. This paper presents the development of POT-based RFFA techniques, using regularised linear models (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, ridge regression and elastic net regression). The results of these regularised linear models are compared with multiple linear regression. Data from 145 stream gauging stations of south-east Australia are used in this study. A leave-one-out cross-validation is adopted to compare these regression models. It has been found that the regularised linear models provide quite accurate flood quantile estimates, with a median relative error in the range of 37 to 47%, which outperform the AM-based RFFA techniques currently recommended in the Australian Rainfall and Runoff guideline. The developed RFFA technique can be used to estimate flood quantiles in ungauged catchments in the study region.

Type de document: Article
Mots-clés libres: flood; regression models; LASSO; ridge regression; elastic net regression; multiple linear regression
Centre: Centre Eau Terre Environnement
Date de dépôt: 06 févr. 2024 21:13
Dernière modification: 06 févr. 2024 21:13
URI: https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/14186

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