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Stationary and non-stationary temperature-duration-frequency curves for Australia.


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Laz, Orpita U.; Rahman, Ataur; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0969-063X et Jahan, Nasreen (2023). Stationary and non-stationary temperature-duration-frequency curves for Australia. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment , vol. 37 . pp. 4459-4477. DOI: 10.1007/s00477-023-02518-w.

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Australian summer heat events have become more frequent and severe in recent times. Temperature-duration-frequency (TDF) curves connect the severity of heat episodes of various durations to their frequencies and thus can be an effective tool for analysing the heat extremes. This study examines Australian heat events using data from 82 meteorological stations. TDF curves have been developed under stationary and non-stationary conditions. Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is considered to estimate extreme temperatures for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. Three major climate drivers for Australia have been considered as potential covariates along with Time to develop the non-stationary TDF curves. According to the Akaike information criterion, the non-stationary framework for TDF modelling provides a better fit to the data than its stationary equivalent. The findings can be beneficial in offering new information to aid climate adaptation and mitigation at the regional level in Australia.

Type de document: Article
Mots-clés libres: annual maximum temperature; climate change; climate drivers; generalised extreme 35 value; non-stationary; temperature-duration-frequency
Centre: Centre Eau Terre Environnement
Date de dépôt: 02 nov. 2023 13:23
Dernière modification: 07 nov. 2023 14:44
URI: https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/13697

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