A cold-health watch and warning system, application to the province of Quebec.

Yan, Bixun; Chebana, Fateh ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3329-8179; Masselot, Pierre; Campagna, Céline; Gosselin, Pierre; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0969-063X et Lavigne, Eric (2021). A cold-health watch and warning system, application to the province of Quebec. In: International Society for Environmental Epidemiology (ISEE), 23-26 août 2021, New York, États-Unis.

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Résumé

Extreme cold weather has serious impacts on human life and health.However, almost no studies focused on cold warning systems to prevent those health effects. In Nordicregions, winter mortality is generally higher than the rest of the year such as in the province of Quebecin Canada. Therefore, the objective of this study is to focus on developing a cold-system and itsapplication to the province of Quebec. METHODS: The proposed cold system is not only an adaptationof the current used system in Quebec for heat, but a number of improvements are also proposed. Theimprovements are mainly about the estimation of over-mortality/over-hospitalization and the lag of coldindicators. The former are calculated by using natural cubic splines, while the latter is chosen by adistributed lag non-linear model. RESULTS:The final proposed thresholds are between (-15 °C, -23 °C)and (-20 °C, -29 °C) according to the climatic region for over-mortality, and between (-13 °C, -23 °C)and (-17 °C, -30 °C) for over-hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS:The proposed thresholds and indicatorshave a high sensitivity and a relatively low number of false alarms, which means they have goodperformance in detecting health episodes caused by extreme cold. KEYWORDS: threshold, cold spell,mortality, hospitalization, alert, preparedness.

Type de document:	Document issu d'une conférence ou d'un atelier
Informations complémentaires:	Affiche
Mots-clés libres:	--
Centre:	Centre Eau Terre Environnement
Date de dépôt:	15 oct. 2021 17:36
Dernière modification:	18 mars 2026 13:19
URI:	https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/11926

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