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Southern Quebec (Canada) summer-season heat spells over the 1941–2000 period: an assessment of observed changes.

Khaliq, M. Naveed; Gachon, Philippe; St-Hilaire, André; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Bobée, Bernard (2007). Southern Quebec (Canada) summer-season heat spells over the 1941–2000 period: an assessment of observed changes. Theoretical and Applied Climatology , vol. 88 , nº 1-2. p. 83-101. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-006-0232-x.

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Résumé

Summer-season (May–September) daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) observations and three types of heat spells obtained from these temperature observations at seven weather stations located in southern Quebec (Canada) for the 60-year period from 1941 to 2000 are studied to assess temporal changes in their characteristics (i.e. frequency of occurrence, seasonal hot days and extremal durations of heat spells). Type-A and Type-B heat spells are obtained respectively from Tmax and Tmin observations and Type-C heat spells from simultaneous joint observations of Tmax and Tmin using suitable thresholds and spells of duration =1-day and =3-day. The results of this investigation show that the majority of the selected percentiles (i.e. 5P, 10P, 25P, 50P, 75P, 80P, 90P, 92P, 95P, and 98P) of Tmax observations show a negative time-trend with statistically significant decreases (at 10% level) in some of the higher percentiles and in the maximal values at four out of seven stations. Almost all of the selected percentiles (same as for the Tmax) and the maximal and minimal values of Tmin observations show a positive trend, with statistically significant increases for all seven stations. Examination of frequencies of occurrence of heat spells, seasonal hot days and annual extremes of heat spell durations indicate that many of these characteristics of heat spells have undergone statistically significant changes over time at some of the stations for Type-A and Type-B heat spells as compared to Type-C heat spells. The Type-C heat spells are generally small in number and are found to be relatively temporally stable. More severe Type-C heat spells, i.e. the ones having Tmax and Tmin values simultaneously above very high thresholds and with duration =3-day have been rarely observed in southern Quebec.

Type de document: Article
Mots-clés libres: trend detection; high percentile; warm spell; public health criterion; heat spell
Centre: Centre Eau Terre Environnement
Date de dépôt: 08 janv. 2021 16:08
Dernière modification: 08 janv. 2021 16:08
URI: http://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/10955

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