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ClimEx project: a 50-member ensemble of climate change projections at 12-km resolution over Europe and northeastern North America with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5).

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Leduc, Martin; Mailhot, Alain; Frigon, Anne; Martel, Jean-Luc; Ludwig, Ralf Peter; Brietzke, Gilbert V.; Giguére, Michel; Brissette, François; Turcotte, Richard; Braun, Marco; Scinocca, John (2019). ClimEx project: a 50-member ensemble of climate change projections at 12-km resolution over Europe and northeastern North America with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology , vol. 58 , nº 4. p. 663-693. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0021.1.

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Résumé

The Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE) consists of a dynamically downscaled version of the CanESM2 50-member initial-conditions ensemble (CanESM2-LE). The downscaling was performed at 12-km resolution over two domains, Europe (EU) and northeastern North America (NNA), and the simulations extend from 1950 to 2099, following the RCP8.5 scenario. In terms of validation, warm biases are found over the EU and NNA domains during summer, whereas during winter cold and warm biases appear over EU and NNA, respectively. For precipitation, simulations are generally wetter than the observations but slight dry biases also occur in summer. Climate change projections for 2080–99 (relative to 2000–19) show temperature changes reaching 8°C in summer over some parts of Europe, and exceeding 12°C in northern Québec during winter. For precipitation, central Europe will become much dryer during summer (−2 mm day−1) and wetter during winter (>1.2 mm day−1). Similar changes are observed over NNA, although summer drying is not as prominent. Projected changes in temperature interannual variability were also investigated, generally showing increasing and decreasing variability during summer and winter, respectively. Temperature variability is found to increase by more than 70% in some parts of central Europe during summer and to increase by 80% in the northernmost part of Québec during the month of May as the snow cover becomes subject to high year-to-year variability in the future. Finally, CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE are compared with respect to extreme precipitation, showing evidence that the higher resolution of CRCM5-LE allows a more realistic representation of local extremes, especially over coastal and mountainous regions.

Type de document: Article
Mots-clés libres: extreme events; climate change; ensembles; regional models; climate variability; interannual variability
Centre: Centre Eau Terre Environnement
Date de dépôt: 09 avr. 2019 15:40
Dernière modification: 09 avr. 2019 17:47
URI: http://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/7866

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