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Development of regional flood frequency analysis techniques using generalized additive models for Australia.

Rahman, Ataur; Charron, Christian; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Chebana, Fateh (2018). Development of regional flood frequency analysis techniques using generalized additive models for Australia. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment , vol. 32 , nº 1. p. 123-139. DOI: 10.1007/s00477-017-1384-1.

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Résumé

Estimation of flood quantiles in ungauged catchments is a common problem in hydrology. For this, the log-linear regression model is widely adopted. However, in many cases, a simple log transformation may not be able to capture the complexity and nonlinearity in flood generation processes. This paper develops generalized additive model (GAM) to deal with nonlinearity between the dependent and predictor variables in regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) problems. The data from 85 gauged catchments from New South Wales State in Australia is used to compare the performances of a number of alternative RFFA methods with respect to variable selection, variable transformation and delineation of regions. Four RFFA methods are compared in this study: GAM with fixed region, log-linear model, canonical correlation analysis (to form neighbourhood in the space catchment attributes) and region-of-influence approach. Based on the outcome from a leave-one-out validation approach, it has been found that the GAM method generally outperforms the other methods even without linking GAM with a neighbourhood/region-of-influence approach. The main strength of GAM is that it captures the non-linearity between the dependent and predictor variables without any restrictive assumption. The findings of this study will encourage other researchers worldwide to apply GAM in RFFA studies, allowing development of more flexible and realistic RFFA models and their wider adoption in practice.

Type de document: Article
Mots-clés libres: GAM; regression; regional frequency analysis; nonlinear models; floods
Centre: Centre Eau Terre Environnement
Date de dépôt: 29 janv. 2018 21:33
Dernière modification: 09 mai 2018 20:07
URI: http://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/6452

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