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Probabilistic Gaussian Copula Regression Model for Multisite and Multivariable Downscaling.

Ben Alaya, Mohamed Ali; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. (2014). Probabilistic Gaussian Copula Regression Model for Multisite and Multivariable Downscaling. Journal of Climate , vol. 27 , nº 9. p. 3331-3347. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00333.1.

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Résumé

Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are useful to simulate large-scale climate evolutions. However, AOGCM data resolution is too coarse for regional and local climate studies. Downscaling techniques have been developed to refine AOGCM data and provide information at more relevant scales. Among a wide range of available approaches, regression-based methods are commonly used for downscaling AOGCM data. When several variables are considered at multiple sites, regression models are employed to reproduce the observed climate characteristics at small scale, such as the variability and the relationship between sites and variables. This study introduces a probabilistic Gaussian copula regression (PGCR) model for simultaneously downscaling multiple variables at several sites. The proposed PGCR model relies on a probabilistic framework to specify the marginal distribution for each downscaled variable at a given day through AOGCM predictors, and handles multivariate dependence between sites and variables using a Gaussian copula. The proposed model is applied for the downscaling of AOGCM data to daily precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures in the southern part of Quebec, Canada. Reanalysis products are used in this study to assess the potential of the proposed method. Results of the study indicate the superiority of the proposed model over classical regression-based methods and a multivariate multisite statistical downscaling model.

Type de document:
Mots-clés libres: regression analysis; climate prediction; probability forecasts/models/distribution; statistical forecasting; general circulation models; climate variability
Centre: Centre Eau Terre Environnement
Date de dépôt: 13 déc. 2016 20:52
Dernière modification: 21 déc. 2016 13:55
URI: http://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/3541

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