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Analysis of changes in the Great Lakes hydro-climatic variables.

Ehsanzadeh, Eghbal; Saley, Hadiza Moussa; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Burn, Donald H.; Pietroniro, Alain; Seidou, Ousmane; Charron, Christian; Lee, Deborah (2013). Analysis of changes in the Great Lakes hydro-climatic variables. Journal of Great Lakes Research , vol. 39 , nº 3. p. 383-394. DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2013.06.015.

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Résumé

A study of changes in hydro-climatology of the Great Lakes was performed incorporating the nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend detection test and a recently developed Bayesian multiple change point detection model. The Component Net Basin Supply (C-NBS) and its components (runoff, precipitation, evaporation) as well as water levels of Great Lakes were analyzed for gradual (i.e. trend type) and abrupt (i.e. shift type) nonstationary behaviors at seasonal and annual scales. It was found that the C-NBS experienced significant upward trends only in the lower Great Lakes (Erie, Ontario) during the summer portion of the year. At an annual scale upward trends were observed only in Lake Ontario. Change point analysis suggested an upward shift in Great Lakes C-NBS in the late 1960s and early 1970s. A combination of gradual and abrupt change analysis of Great Lakes water levels indicated a common upward shift along with a change in trend direction around the early 1970s. It was also found that precipitation and runoff are on a plateau and in some cases on a decreasing course following an increasing trend in the early twentieth century. Results obtained from this study show that the hydro-climatology of Great Lakes is characterized by nonstationaiy behavior. Changes in this behavior have caused the Great Lakes water levels to decrease during the last few decades. This study provides valuable insights into the nature of the nonstationary behavior of hydro-climatic variables of Great Lakes and contributes useful information to the future water management planning.

Type de document:
Mots-clés libres: trend analysis; shift analysis; bayesian change point detection; Great Lakes climate; water levels
Centre: Centre Eau Terre Environnement
Date de dépôt: 05 déc. 2016 20:48
Dernière modification: 05 déc. 2016 20:48
URI: http://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/3430

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