Dubos, Véronique 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6699-1845; Hani, Ilias ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6699-3242; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0969-063X et St-Hilaire, André ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8443-5885
(2022).
Short-term forecasting of spring freshet peak flow with the Generalized Additive model.
Journal of Hydrology
, vol. 612
, nº part A.
p. 128089.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128089.
Résumé
In cold boreal regions, for rivers with small to medium-sized watersheds under natural hydrological regimes, the risk of spring flooding is determined by peak flow intensity rather than flood volume. Nonetheless, short-term forecasting of peak flow intensity is subject to a lot of uncertainty and depends largely on ongoing specific snowmelt conditions. This study proposes a simple operational model based on the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to forecast short-term spring freshet peak flow. The model uses hydrological and meteorological data publicly available on a daily basis. The model was tested on five rivers in the Province of Québec (Canada) with drainage basins varying between 350 km2 and 1707 km2. The model results (forecasted peak flows) were compared to those obtained using the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and a distributed deterministic hydrological model (Hydrotel) currently used for flow forecasting of several rivers in the Province. The peak flow was forecasted accurately with relatively few variables, mainly a combination of river flow and rate of flow increase a few days before peak flow, previous air temperature, rain accumulation and snow accumulation. Nonetheless, the best combinations of predictive variables were river-specific. The GAM model, using an automatic fitting and easily accessible daily data, can be implemented by any stakeholder.
| Type de document: | Article |
|---|---|
| Mots-clés libres: | peak flow; flood forecast; GAM; distributed hydrological model; boreal hydrology; spring runoff |
| Centre: | Centre Eau Terre Environnement |
| Date de dépôt: | 20 août 2026 13:56 |
| Dernière modification: | 20 août 2026 13:56 |
| URI: | https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/15352 |
Gestion Actions (Identification requise)
 |
Modifier la notice |