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Characterizing and forecasting climate indices using time series models.

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Lee, Taesam, Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0969-063X et Seidou, Ousmane (9999). Characterizing and forecasting climate indices using time series models. Theoretical and Applied Climatology . DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-280240/v1. (Sous Presse)

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Résumé

The objective of the current study is to present a comparison of techniques for the forecasting of low frequency climate oscillation indices with a focus on the Great Lakes system. A number of time series models have been tested including the traditional Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model, Dynamic Linear model (DLM), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, as well as the nonstationary oscillation resampling (NSOR) technique. These models were used to forecast the monthly El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices which show the most significant teleconnection with the net basin supply (NBS) of the Great Lakes system from a preliminary study. The overall objective is to predict future water levels, ice extent, and temperature, for planning and decision making purposes. The results showed that the DLM and GARCH models are superior for forecasting the monthly ENSO index, while the forecasted values from the traditional ARMA model presented a good agreement with the observed values within a short lead time ahead for the monthly PDO index.

Type de document: Article
Mots-clés libres: ARMA; climate index; dynamic linear model; ENSO; GARCH; PDO; time series
Centre: Centre Eau Terre Environnement
Date de dépôt: 10 juin 2021 15:24
Dernière modification: 07 mars 2022 05:00
URI: https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/11765

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