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A Survival Analysis Model for Sewer Pipe Structural Deterioration.

Duchesne, Sophie; Beardsell, Guillaume; Villeneuve, Jean-Pierre; Toumbou, Babacar; Bouchard, Kassandra (2013). A Survival Analysis Model for Sewer Pipe Structural Deterioration. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering , vol. 28 , nº 2. p. 146-160. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8667.2012.00773.x.

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Résumé

The structural state of sewer systems is often quantified using condition classes. The classes are based on the severity of structural defects observed on individual pipes within the system. Here, a survival analysis model was developed to predict the overall structural state of a sewer network based on camera inspection data from a sample of pipes in the system. The convolution product was used to define the survival functions for cumulative staying times in each condition class. An original calibration procedure for the sewer deterioration model was developed to overcome the censored nature of data (left censored and right censored) available for the calibration of sewer deterioration models. The exponential and Weibull functions were used to represent the distribution of waiting times in each deterioration state. Cross-validation tests showed that the Weibull function led to greater uncertainty than the exponential function for the simulated proportion of pipes that are in a deteriorated state. Using various sample sizes for model calibration, these cross-validation tests also showed that the model's results are robust to smaller calibration sample sizes. This confirms the model's potential for predicting the overall state of deterioration of a sewer network when only a small proportion of the pipes have been inspected.

Type de document:
Mots-clés libres: calibration procedure; calibration samples; cross-validation tests; deteriorated state; model calibration; sample sizes; sewer deterioration; sewer networks; sewer pipes; sewer system; structural defect; structural deterioration; structural state; survival analysis; survival function; waiting time; weibull functions
Centre: Centre Eau Terre Environnement
Date de dépôt: 05 déc. 2016 20:46
Dernière modification: 05 déc. 2016 20:46
URI: http://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/3426

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